European hotel market outlook
STR Global reports that on average European hotels recorded increases in key performance indicators, occupancy (OCC: +2.3%), average daily room rate (ADR: +8.1%) and revenue per available room (RevPAR: +10.5%) in 2015. Central and eastern Europe recovered from their flat performance in the previous year
while markets such as southern Mediterranean Europe and western Europe recorded moderate growth. Overall the outlook for Europe remains promising although recent economic slowdowns in Chinese and emerging market economies, together with geopolitical tension in the Middle East, has added a downside risk.
Review of four European key markets and their outlook for 2016
Geopolitical and economic events such as the refugee crisis and the Paris terrorist attacks have had a significant impact on some of the major hotel markets in Europe in 2015. London, Paris, Moscow and Istanbul reflect the contrasting results of recent events.
Although supply in London grew by around 2.5% in 2015, demand growth kept pace and occupancy remains high. London’s position as a global financial capital and tourism powerhouse suggests a positive outlook for 2016. Downside risks include a potential Brexit, and a Paris style terrorist attack.
Paris’ hotel market felt a strong impact of several terrorist attacks in 2015. After the first two, occupancy figures recovered quickly but the latest incident in November 2015 increases the risk that it will take some time for the industry to recover, in particular given relatively slow French GDP growth.
Moscow’s main tourist segment, international business travellers, decreased significantly during 2015, mainly as a result of the political tensions following its incursions into Ukrainian territory in 2014 and resulting economic sanctions. However, lower prices and a favourable exchange rate increased local and Asian leisure visitation, helping to offset the negative effects of the crisis. The outlook for 2016 is mixed, geopolitical tensions remain, and low energy prices continue to impact the Russian economy.
Istanbul and the Turkish coastal tourism in particular were affected greatly by the crisis in Syria and by the large number of refugees passing through Turkey. Russian sanctions after an incident in November will likely prevent more than 4 million Russians travelling to Turkey. The ongoing political challenges and concerns about security in Eastern Anatolia are likely to have a negative effect on the industry causing the outlook for 2016 to be rather pessimistic.
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